Week 11 – Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Navigating Choices When the Path Isn’t Clear

A year ago today, I made the biggest decision of my life: Should I go to university or accept an offer for a degree apprenticeship?

This was it. All that I had worked for.

Two Russell Group universities wanting me to study there or a top city law firm wanting me to work with them.

The decision was and remains the hardest decision I have had to make to date.

I chose the degree apprenticeship but it was a long and arduous process.

I considered that there were uncertain variables and not a lot of research. Most importantly, was it the right path for me?

We face hard decisions every day, from choosing what to eat for breakfast to trying to choose where to live.

Experiencing the results of hard choices are needed to achieve progress.

I managed to make this decision, but I wonder, is there a way to come to the outcome more easily?

I think there is.

This week I aim to help you make hard choices.

I will provide you with a framework to try and make those decisions in a way that is easier and more enjoyable for you.

Let’s start, as always, with our psychology surrounding hard choices.

Our original view is that hard choices create anxiety due to comparison of two options. Ruth Chang says this is misled. It is in fact that some options are better only in a few instances.

So, on a par, there is no ‘overall’ best option.

This then creates an anxiety in us, that we don’t have an ability to make an informed decision.

We can reframe this though.

Encountering hard decisions allows us to create reasons for ourselves. We have the power to make a choice based on internal reasons.

Ali Abdaal expands on this. He suggests for us to have a mental board of advisors when making these decisions.

So, choose four people whose opinions matter to you and ask them to make the decision.

This helps as we have some basis to go off which allows for us to be more certain in our decisions.

Our attitude to decision-making has changed. Now we need to understand what scenario’s ‘Hard Choices’ fall into.

There are three types of situations where decisions are made which relate to this theme:

1. Risky – There are known possible outcomes, so it is not scary because we can manage it.
2. Uncertain – There are unknown possible outcomes and so it is scary.
3. Ambiguity – It is created by uncertainty. We think that our decisions can control the situation when they cannot.

So, our ‘hard choices’ fall into uncertain scenarios. When I chose my route, I was uncertain about what the future would hold for me.

So how did I approach this? I embraced and accepted the uncertainty. In an uncertain scenario, try your best to ensure that your values guide the situation.

My values were trying to be challenged intellectually. So this guided my approach to this decision.

We now understand the type of scenario hard choices fall into. We have a positive approach. But what about our cognitive biases?

Let’s examine these to ensure that they do not control us but instead play a part in our thinking.

Charlie Munger’s lecture on the Psychology of Human Misjudgement helps us. Here are the two tendencies I feel control us into thinking that hard decisions are horrible to make:

1. Inconsistency Avoidance Tendency: We try to avoid inconsistency. This leads to resistance to change. Our brains conserve energy by being reluctant. Our decisions will often seek to limit change. This is true of both constructive and destructive habits.
2. Social-Proof Tendency: We might act according to societal norms. Think of the phrase ‘Monkey See, Monkey Do.’ This often happens in the presence of confusion or stress. Hard decisions are the epitome of this.

Ultimately, while it is good to recognise which bias is at play, we must never let them control/rule us. If we can master them, we are truly in control of all our decisions.

Right, we have a good approach, know the situation, and have mastered our biases. But how do we make this decision? We are now going to look at two aspects:

1. Intuition.
2. A decision-making framework and journal.

Intuition.

When I was making the decision that started this post, I knew I could trust my gut. My gut was aligned with my values, so I knew it would lead me in the right direction. So what is the power of intuition? Gary Klein explains this best:

1. Intuition is valuable but requires critical evaluation. It should never be blindly trusted. Whatever you intuit, test it with evidence. For example, your gut says to do the degree apprenticeship. Is this a proven route? Does it give success?
2. Context determines intuition’s reliability. The effectiveness of intuition depends on two critical factors. The predictability of the environment and the opportunity for learning through feedback. Experts can develop trustworthy intuitions in domains with repetitive tasks (like surgery). But they may struggle in highly volatile or unprecedented situations. Strategic decisions often lack the high-validity environment needed for reliable intuitive judgments.
3. Mitigating Intuition’s Risks Requires Deliberate Strategies. To counteract the pitfalls of intuition—such as overconfidence —leaders should use techniques. For example, imagine why a project might fail, and create a culture that allows other perspectives.

So, by mastering the role of intuition, we are halfway to conquering hard choices.

A decision framework.

Reflecting on my framework and the Harvard Business Review has led to this framework. Ask yourself these four questions:

1. Why am I making this decision? Analyse the context behind making this decision and what got you to this point.
2. Does this align with my values? Analyse all options and ask whether they align with your values.
3. For each option, ask: Would I regret not doing this in a year? If the answer is yes, then it seems clear.
4. Are there uncertainties bothering me? Write these down and ask yourself why they are. This should provide more clarity to your process.

I provided a framework and background. I hope this helps you make uncertain decisions.

So, my weekly challenge for when you encounter a hard choice:

1. Remember that you have the power to create a reason
2. Follow the four-step framework
3. Trust yourself

Have a great week 🙂

Dylan